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US Elections 2012: Herman Cain Reputation Crisis
E Coli Crisis: Media Impact and Reputation Analysis
Strauss-Kahn Scandal: Impact on IMF Reputation
Bin Laden: New in Blog Crisis, Media, Reputation
We have opened a new series of posts about Bin Laden killed media coverage analysis.
Wikileaks Reputation Crisis
December 2010
We are currently running a new project about the reputation implications of Wikileaks crisis. This is a pure reputation analysis, based on quantitative and qualitative analysis of news related to Wikileaks, worldwide.
Reports and systematic analysis will be presented at Media, Reputation and Intangibles site, MRI Universidad de Navarra.
Fresh news and empirical findings are periodically posted at Wikileaks Reputation and Intangibles blog, wikileaksreputationcrisis/worldpress.com
Below a list of some of the analysis posted in the blog:
March 11: Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Vs Wikikeaks: media Coverage of Disasters
March 4: US Reputation. (III) The impact of some ugly brands: Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, Madoff, Jared Loughner
February 21: US Reputation. (II) The Impact of Top American Brands: iPhone, Coca-Cola, Oscars, Super Bowl, NBA All-Star
February 19: US Reputation and Wikileaks. (I) US Vs Spain Media Reputation
January 23: Index of Wikileaks Media Impact (II)
January 17: Tunisia Crisis as A New Use of Wikileaks Cables: Explaining and Judging
January 13: Newspapers and Wikileaks: Case Le Monde
January 6: Wikileaks Country Media Attention Index: Some Selected Examples
January 3: Companies Reputation and Wikileaks: Bank of America Case
December 30: Companies in Europe Most Affected by Wikileaks
December 30: Wikileaks Issues Viewed from: Pakistan
December 27: Companies Reputation: Chevron Case
December 22: American Firms Affected by Wikileaks News
December 21: Heads of State and Governement and Wikileaks (I)
US States Governors' Elections 2010. Media Attention
November 2, 2010
We show the results of our analysis concerning the media attention given to US States Governors' Elections of Nov 2, 2010. This analysis is made using media value approach and is applied to the politics sphere.
Using this approach we observed a close relationship between media attention during the campaign by all relevant newspapers and actual voting results, applied to US Presidential Elections 2008 and to Spanish Legislative Elections 2008.
We have estimated media attention for all Governors' candidates to Nov 2, 2010 elections. We show below the results concerning US newspapers coverage. In each graph we show the relative media attention provided to each candidate. We include the latest polls available, normally from Rasmussen source.
These results have been computed and published by Nov 2, 2010 (1pm ET), before the announcement of the voting takes place. We will compare later on our results with actual voting results. In the Politics and Media Value we will show the analysis concerning media coverage given in each single US State and final voting, and also media coverage given by each one of top 100 US Newspapers by circulation.
As we have some technical problems, we cannot show here the graphs, but they are accessible in this sister site.
MRI Report 2 El rescate de los 33 mineros: una epopeya coral
Lehman Brothers in the News as Fear of Systemic Collapse Index
September 2011
Thre years ago Lehman Brothers investment bank filled for bankruptcy protection, the largest in US history and worldwide. This unprecedented business failure was the main souce of the consequent liquidity crunch in the banking sector that expanded quickly to all markets.
Referring to Lehman Brothers three years after it disappeared is now normally a style resouce to talk about systemic risks, system collapse, to-big-to-fail debates: all serious economic things.
Identifying epitome terms allows to investigate how media behaves when explaining posterious events apparently related with. We showed for instance in a precedent post to which extent media was using references to Chernobil disaster at the initial stages of Fukushima nuclear accident. Now Fukushima is the epitome term for nuclear disasters and will be the tool for examining how seriously are perceived by the media future nuclear incidents.
So, using techniques and measurements by Media, Reputation and Intangible center Universidad de Navarra, we can monitor the time evolution of the media references to Lehman Brothers.
Based on precedent media analysis results, we claim that time evolution of Lehman in the news is a good index for gauging how global media considers the serisousness of the economic crisis since 2009.
Tensions decreased after second quarter 2010, with the Fear Index below the value of 150 till second quarter 2011. From this point, the index has increased constantly. Right now the Index reaches a value of 370 points: this is a new maximum since the last quarter of year 2008 in teh aftermath of the bankruptcy.
If our underlying assumptions are correct, the tool we propose is telling us that we are currently experiencing serious fears that the unsolved current sovereign debt crisis in Europe may lead the global economy to a systemic collapse. At least now more than half year ago.
See full analysis in our blog: Lehman Brothers in the News
The Economic and Financial Crisis and the Media
October 10, 2008
Following the methodology developed by ESirg (Economics, Sport and Intangibles research group) University of Navarra, we are monitoring since the start of year 2008 global media coverage concerning economic and financial issues.
We will provide in this section our findings and analysis concerning the 2008 Economic Crisis.
Unemployment Media Sentiment Index
Updated: March 13, 2009
This index refers to media attention given to unemployment related articles in newspapers published in English worldwide, related to each one of the countries selected in the graphs. Value 100 corresponds to media attention given to unemployment between March and September 2008.
Global media attention to unemployment is reaching a level of 280 points, and shows a steady increase since September 2008. Germany and Japan experienced a more abrupt increase of media attention than in the USA between October and November 2008. Right now, the issue is less present in Germany than in the other countries.
If we look to the case of countries in Europe, we can observe that media attention related to unemployment in Germany is similar to France. These two countries were in better position than England, Spain and Italy at the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis. Spain and Italy reached a peak of 500 points by November. Now the Unemployment Index takes a value of 200 for all countries, except for Spain, presenting an index of 263 points at the beginning of March 2009.
The Crisis In the Media: Top 10 Global Issues
Updated: November 14
We show below which are the top 10 issues related with the financial and economic crisis, as reported by worldwide media in English. In the top of each bar we also show the trend experienced by each issue during the last week.
This data corresponds to news published between mid October and Mid November 2008.
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Crisis and the Media Global Report 2
The Crisis and the Media Global Report 1
Top Crisis in the Media Issues: Weekly Movers
Updated: October 27
Amon all top issues related with the crisis, as portrayed by the media, we show in the following figures top movers during this week, in upward and downward trend.
These figures reflect how the story around the crisis is moving week by week.
The Financial Crisis Media Sentiment Index
Updated: Oct 10, 2008
The following figure reflects the evolution of the presence financial crisis articles in the press, related to different countries and groups of countries, according to global media printed in english.
We have taken the situation by October 7 2008 as reference value 100. In comparison with October numbers, financial crisis was a non issue from March 2008 to mid August 2008.
Just in a couple of days, news related to financial crisis are just exploding. This is particularly the case for articles referring to UK and Japan.
This Index will be regularly updated.
The Economic Crisis Media Sentiment Index
Updated: October 15
Five days after our first presentations of the results concerning the Economic Crisis Media Sentiment Index (measured with a black bullet in the graph), we find that the intensity of economic crisis related articles is still increasing concerning the German and Japanese economy, while is somehow easing concerning UK.
Financial or Economic Crisis?
Updated: October 15
In this section we show a complemetary index, to be put in relationship with the Financial and Economic Crisis Media Sentiment. This is the Economic Crisis-Financial Crisis ratio, as perceived by the media. We are convinced that the fundamentals of many countries lead them to a severe economic crisis in the near future and that economic recession or even depression is a probably unavoidable outcome in some countries like Spain or Ireland.
As far as media attention is concentrated in the financial crisis instead of analysing the causes and consequences of the incoming economic crisis, reflexion, public opinion and political concern will be oriented to look for remedies in the financial area. Even if considering that the present situation of risk of systemic collapse of the financial sector asks for urgent measures to dilute the financial crisis, a lot of energy will undoubtely be needed to address the economic crisis, and the lack of adequate media attention to this crucial issue could be harmful for the efectiveness of the eventual reform and structural measures to put into action.
From the figure below we can observe that the economy where the sensitiveness to economic crisis related issues is higher is right now concerning the US economy. We can also obverve that the days of strong financial panic lead to an increase of attention for potential economic crisis, while this fear has softened since then.
Who is telling what?
Updated: October 15 2008
In this section of our project Economic Crisis and the Media we show how the main issues related with the financial and economic crisis are portrayed by media in United States in terms of intensity, by groups of journals. In the graphs below we show how some selected issues related with the financial and economic crisis are present in comparison with the treatment given by all US media included in our data set. We have chosen three groups of reference newspapers:
1. Top US 5 newspapers by circulation and prestige: USA Today, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, and Washington Post.
2. Leading financial newspapers: Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.
3. Top 6-20 US newspapers by circulation
4. 500 US newspapers and news providers including 87 out of top 100 by circulation, main news agencies, regional and local press.
In each figure we compare the behaviour of all USA newspapers in our data set, for which we give value 100, to the behaviour of the other set of newspapers. A value higher than 100 implies that for that group of journals, that specific issue has a higher relative media coverage than the average coverage given by all US newspapers. Values lower than 100 imply that this group of journals receives less media coverage than average treatment given by all US newspapers.
The graphs below show some examples of the issues related with the crisis that we are following in our research project. Results refer to the media coverage given between the beginning of September 2008 and mid October (October 15).
You can find other examples of crisis related issues in this document (updated October 16)
Media Impact of Iceland's National Bankruptcy Risk (II)
Updated: October 24
Two weeks after our first measurement of the global media impact of Iceland crisis, our results show that the unprecedented national crisis is still puting the Iceland image in a way never reached before. Right now, Iceland is producing a volume of news which is eight times higher than its average behaviour. In comparison with other countries that have become "media stars" during 2008, like China or Zimbabwe, the media impact of Iceland's financial troubles show how exceptional they are.
You can find the previous measurement in the "Countries" section.
Welcome to the Politics and Media Value Project Site
Welcome to the 2008 US Presidential Election Media Coverage Analysis, from the Politics and Media Value Project , ESIrg University of Navarra
This is a research initiative which merges Media Value Analysis, developped by ESI-rg, and political analysis.
Now we show our analysis regarding US Elections'08 and the media. This will be an open and continously updated research project, where we show our findings and results concerning the uqantitative analysis of the media treatment of US Elections 2008.
The unique US electoral system allows us to apply our techniques in order to provide new insights concerning the interaction between media position and media coverage, polls, actual voting behavior and political discourse agenda.
Barack Obama as Elected US President
Update: November 15, 2008
Barack Obama won the US Presidential elections. We will show the media attention he generates until his nomination in January 2009. We will show the differences in terms of media attention with Republican candidate John McCain.
By November 15 ten days after the elections, the media attention gap has raised to 21 points.
The vicepresident candidate media coverage
Updated: October 20
Measuring Sarah Palin's effect
We reproduce in the following graphs media attention gathered by each party ticket since the nomination of the vicepresident candidate.
We can appreciate that Joe Biden plays in the Democrat party the traditional role played by the vicepresident candidate: he shows a complementary profile with the President candidate, and will probably no have a major impact in voters' decisions, except for vicepresident candidate home State. Joe Biden is present in some 20% of all news produced by the Democrat ticket.
We will assist to a one-man-show end of the campaign in the Democrat side.
By contrast, something like a political and media earthquake happened when John McCain announced his ticket choice: Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska, young, independent from the traditional polical establishement, mother of four.
Almost two months after her election, we can appreciate that Sarah Palin's media impact is far from faddeing away. Se is still present in some 40% of all news from the Republican ticket. More relevant, she is the unique reference for some 13% of Republicans media attention (for a mere 3% in Joe Biden's case).
Some analysists and leading US newspapers are endorsing Barack Obama project as they consider that John McCain choice was a big political mistake and irresponsibility. In spite of this, Sarha Palin's capital of media attention implies to our understanding that probably for the first time ever, a substantial amount of votes in the Republican camp will be decided mainly because of Sarah Palin's contribution to the campaign and the Republican project.
As the Republicans are aware of this new phenomenon, we will probably assist to a two-members-ticket end of the Republican campaign.
We can appreciate in the following graphs the detail of the specific contribution of the vicepresident candidates to their party overall media coverage.
Press Article: El efecto Palin (in Spanish)
How Powerful is the Fourth Power?
Updated: October 23
Our Politics and Media Value Project is capturing since the beginning of 2008 the media attention produced by US Presidential Election candidates. The first aim of our research project is to generate quantitative measures concerning media coverage received by each candidate during the crucial stages of the campaign. This information allows us to measure the impact of the different elements of the campaign or other external factors in media coverage received, like the primary votings, the party conventions, the vice presidents nominations or evenements in the economic front or related with foreign affairs.
Another evident and relevant question that we can now address is the relationship between media coverage and voting intentions. Which is the actual relationship between media and politics? To which extent media is a strong Fourth Power able to influence and model voters' decisions? It is true that media coverage is not the only relevant variable, as press treatment may be as important as just media presence. But with the information we have generated we are able to analyze the factual relationship between media coverage and voting intentions.
We have selected media coverage devoted to Barack Obama and John McCain since the moment when former candidate Hillary Clinton announced her withdrawal from the presidential race. Media attention before that moment received a lot of noise due to the Obama-Clinton battle. So, we have estimated the difference of media attention received by Barack Obama against McCain in percentual points, since the begin of June 2008. Values of media attention correspond to 30-days moving averages. This is the blue line in the graphs below. A positive value indicates a higher monthly media coverage for Obama than for McCain.
We have used the values provided by RealClearPolitics.com as measure for voting intentions. It corresponds to the difference in percentual points of the average results of the polls concerning the voting intentions for Barack Obama against John McCain. We have estimated the 30-days average results of those polls. It corresponds to the yellow line in the graphs below. A positive value reflects and advantage ofor Obama in voting intentions reflected by the average of all polls during the last 30 days.
As we can appreciate intuitively, both variables are connected, as the evolve following a similar behaviour. An increase of media coverage is related with an increase in voting intentions in the polls. Technically, there is a positive correlation between these two time-series of 0.16 (correlations varies between -1 and +1).
The critical question is to identify the sense of the relationship, if existing: Do voters follow media behaviour, or are rather the media that adjust their media coverage according to the evolution of polls? We can offer some guidance to analyze this question by using a time-series causality analysis. We will show here just the procedure intuitively, by using descriptive statistics.
Our approach consists in comparing both time series again, but introducing this time lags (weekly lags) or moving forward one of the series. Here we have selected to move the polls series.
The first hypothesis is that media follow voters' trends. Media as a whole do not really create opinion, but they rather adapt to social trends, in this case voters' behaviour as captured by the polls. A way to test this hypothesis is to estimate the correlation between present media coverage to both candidates and their position in the polls some weeks before. If the correlation is high, this would reveal that media coverage follow the path established by the polls. We have estimated the correlations for one, two, three and four weeks between both series. We find that the strongest correlation appears with two weeks of distance between polls and media coverage evolution. In this case, the initial positive correlation of 0.16 jumps to 0.36.
Under this assumption, polls announce the behavior of the media. If this hypothesis is about to be verified till the end of the campaign, we should observe an uwward trend of the media coverage favorable to Barack Obama (blue line), due to the recent trend shown by the polls (yellow thin line), whatever it happens with the voting intentions during the news two weeks.
The complementary hypothesis suposes that global media behavior do affect voters' decisions. If this was the case, an increase of media coverage favourable to Barack Obama should lead to an increase of Democrat voting intentions as measured by polls. Under this assumption polls follow the variation of media concerage.
The way to empirically test the presence of such a relationship is no to run the correlations moving the polls series in the other direction: we compare present media coverage with polls results some time later. The presence of a strong positive correlation would indicate the presence of a causality influence of media on voters' decisions. We have again introduced one, two, three and four weeks lags in the polls time series against present media coverage.
Our results show that the combination which presents a higher correlation value is an introduction of two weeks lags between media coverage and polls: variations in today global media coverage is trnaslated into variations of voting behavior two weeks later. In this case we find that correlation takes a value of 0.08. This represents in fact a weak positive relationship between both variables.
If nevertheless we assume that media coverage causes an effect in polls, we should observe during the next two weeks an increase of the gap in polls between Obama and McCain.
If we consider the actual relationship shown between media coverage and polls observed between June and mid October, the empirical results tend to privilege the hypothesis that the media follow the polls intead of driving them.
During the last two weeks of the campaign four different scenarios could be observed:
- Evolution of media coverage and polls favorable to Barack Obama.
- Evolution of media coverage favorable to Obama and polls favorable to McCain.
- Evolution of media coverage favorable to McCain and polls favorable to Obama
- Evolution of media coverage favorable to McCain and polls favorable to McCain.
The scenarios compatible with the hypothesis that media follows the polls are number 1 and number 2, while number 3 and 4 defies the hypothesis. The scenario 2 is the one that supposes the strongest confirmation of the hypothesis: the graph announces an increase of media coverage favorable to Barack Obama because of the trend observed in the polls during these last two weeks. If this still happen even if now the polls turn in favcour to McCain, this result would confirm that media follow the polls, with some time lag (two weeks or so).
The scenarios compatible with the opposite hypothesis that assumes that the media influences the evolution of voting intentions are number 1 and number 3. As we have observed during these last two weeks an increase of media coverage favorable to Obama, this should be translated the incoming weeks into an increase in voting intentions for Barack Obama. The strongest confirmation of the prevalence of the hypothesis of the media influence as Fouth Power is scenario 3.
The only scenario incompatible with both hypothesis concerning the relationship between media coverage and polls is scenario 4: an increase in media coverage and polls favorable to McCain. If this happened during the next two weeks this would reveal the absence of strong relationship between media and polls in any sense: no one influenced then really the other.
The answer? We meet again by the beginning of November.
Updated: February 2, 2008
In the following graph we contrast the views presented by the global media coverage concerning the electoral issues with the actual concerns of US voters. We use as reference the poll conducted by Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix, 28-28 January 2008. The following question was answered by 993 people: "Which of these is the most important issue for you?". The wording of the answers does not always coincide with our own references, based in Gallup questionnaires. We have made the following regrouping: Our "Economy" and "Taxes" issues correspond to "Economy" for The Economist. Our "Energy" issue corresponds to "Environment" and "Global Warming" issue for The Economist. Our "National Secutiry" issue corresponds to "Terrorism" for The Economist. There is no a direct correspondence to our "Abortion" issue in The Economist poll.
We can appreciate from the table a quite suprising closeness between voters' views and worries and the issues conveyed by the press in relation with the Democrat and Republican candidates. According to our results, the war in Iraq is receiving a substantial higher coverage than the actual voters' worries. The economy receives less media attention than the importance given by people.
We will check in the coming weeks the evolution of both series and their interrelationship.
Media Attention. US Nespapers with Republican Oriented Coverage
Updated: Jan 30, 2008
The table shows the list, among leading US newspapers and news producers, presenting a media coverage which gives to Republican candidates higher exposure than average. Below in this section or in the Newspapers section you can find the list of the newspapers presenting a media coverage favorable in extension to Democratic candidates.
According to our results, the newspapers presenting a profile oriented to Republican candidates (in a higher extent than average) are Tampa Tribune, New York Post and Arizona Republic. Among News magazines we find that US News and World Report presents a Republican oriented coverage. CBS News covered Republican candidates in a higher extent than Fox News.
Spanish General Elections
We show in the two following graphs the relationship beetwen media coverage given to each party in the Spanish general elections (March 9, 2008) and the final results obtained by each party in term of votes and of parliamentary seats.
Spanish electoral system follows a modified proportional system, using the D'Hont Law. This system produces as a consecuence that national parties with a low share of votes receive less representatives elected than the share of votes received. Also majoritarian regional parties present in few circunscriptions obtain more parliamentary seats than national parties with similar global share of votes. This is why we present the relationship of media coverage and electoral results splitting between national and regional parties.
From the grpahs we can observe a strong linkage between media coverage and electoral results. Big national parties (PSOE -Socialist Party- and PP -Popular Party, Center Right) receive a combined media attention higher than the share of votes received(92.4% of media attention versus 83.7% of votes), while is basically identical to their parliamentary weight (92.3%). So Spanish media tend to reinforce bipartisanism in Spain, as they convey media coverage in line with final actual political influence (parliametary seats) rather than popular support (share of votes received).
US Elections Coverage of US Leading Newspapers
Last updated: Jan 25, 2008
In this section we show the specific analysis of the leading US and international newspapers and news producers.
In the table below we show the leading US journals and their position concerning the coverage of Democratic and Republican candidates. The first table shows the newspapers that concede a highet media coverage to Democratic candidates than the average of all leading journals.
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